Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,765 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,820 yuan/mt and a low of 20,680 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,755 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume was 44,200 lots, and the open interest was 151,400 lots, with a daily reduction of 3,500 lots. On the previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,565/mt, reached a high of $2,569/mt, a low of $2,518/mt, and closed at $2,528/mt, down $35/mt, a decrease of 1.73%.
Summary: Macro side, the US October non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, meeting market expectations, reaching a three-month high, halting a six-month decline. The US dollar index continued to rise, hitting a new high for the year, and base metals continued to adjust downward. Meanwhile, several US Fed officials expressed deep uncertainty about the extent of interest rate cuts, which would make them more cautious and possibly take a pause during the rate cut cycle. Domestically, new real estate policies were introduced, with increased deed tax discounts and VAT exemptions expected to boost the real estate industry. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum ingot inventory remained below 600,000 mt during the week. Recently, transportation in north-west China has improved, forcing a halt to the continuous destocking trend of aluminum ingot inventory, with an initial inventory turning point forming. Low inventory support for aluminum prices may gradually weaken. Alumina spot supply remains tight, coupled with production disruptions from some companies, but the Nonferrous Metals Association's comments on the current significant alumina fluctuations have slightly eased market sentiment, leading to high-level adjustments in alumina prices. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, but the support strength has weakened. In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate upward, with continued attention to macro sentiment changes and alumina price fluctuations domestically and internationally.
